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Iran poses the greatest foreign policy challenge to Barack Obama, the President-elect, with Tehran on course to produce a nuclear bomb in the first year of an Obama administration, a coalition of top think-tanks gave warning yesterday.
Mr Obama must keep his promises of direct talks with Tehran and engage the Middle East region as a whole if he is to halt a looming crisis that could be revisited on the US, the experts said.
“Diplomacy is not guaranteed to work,” Richard Haass, one of the authors said. “But the other options – military action or living with an Iranian weapon are sufficiently unattractive for it to warrant serious commitment.”
The warnings came in a report entitled Restoring the Balance. The Middle East strategy for the President-elect was drafted by the Council for Foreign Relations and the Brookings Institution.
Gary Samore, one of the authors, said that the level of alarm over the “hornet’s nest” facing the President-elect in the Middle East, and the need for the swift adoption of previously untested approach, had inspired the decision to write policy for him. “New administrations can choose new policies but they can’t choose next contexts,” Mr Samore said.
The report paints a grim picture of the problems in the region but asserts that Mr Obama is still in a strong position. For the first time since the Iranian revolution the leadership in Tehran has endorsed the idea of talking directly with Washington, as Mr Obama has suggested. Falling oil prices also provide an opportunity, restricting Iran’s means to sponsor terrorist groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah that act as its proxy in the region.
The new administration, however, must not fall into the trap of treating Iran in isolation to the rest of the Middle East, as the previous administration did.
Syria, which has shown tentative signs of a desire for better relations with the West and has held negotiations with Israel, could be the ideal test case for a new diplomatic approach.
The report laid blame for much of the crisis with the Bush Administration, whose war in Iraq fuelled Iran’s regional ascendancy. The authors warned against an “Anything but Bush” approach, urging Mr Obama to build on changes in direction adopted in the past two years.
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Laura - unfortunately we don't have just one Enemy. North Korea may be deterred but Iran may not.
We must never willingly use them - hence the term 'unthinkable option' but we should have them.
Ben, York,
Global warming and carbon footprints are irrelevant. We need to kick-start our economies with truly massive and unprecedented investment in alternative fuels simply in order to be independent of Iran, Saudi, etc - and to starve them of their weapons budgets.
Mrs Trellis, Bristol,
This whole issue is insane.
If you believe in deterrence, it doesn't matter if others have the biggest nuclear stockpile in the world. They will not use it because your weapons deter them from doing so.
If you think they will attack you anyway, your weapons are not a deterrent. So why have them?
Laura Roberts, London, UK
Iran knows that if it uses the bomb, it will be annihilated by the US or Israel. Its leaders aren't insanely intent on self-destruction--this is a game of one-upmanship. Give them a stake in a peaceful Middle East and the numerous Iranian moderates will come to the forefront.
Ann, Chicago, USA
I think the USA should look to someone else to intervene. Let other Countries worry about Iran and Israel. Time for the USA to start saying 'no' to other issues in the World.
Thom, San Jose, USA
having the bomb is a bargaining tool....if iran uses the bomb they would essentially seal they're own fate so there is no reason for them to use it. its just a bargaining tool. and another thing, Ahmadinejad can't even unite his own ppl cuz they don't like him either. his ppl donot support him.
mike, long beach, CA,
Communication is the failsafe to war and seems to be the best option. We really don't have any other choice. Militant Capitalism is not a sustainable resource and should never have been practiced. Too bad my fellow countrymen can only now see this now that we have our backs against the wall.
Carson Rhodes, Stockton, CA, USA, Planet Earth
Iran can be further weakened by banning their oil exports. Even China may not want Iranian oil since many of their factories are closed.
Mike, Chicago,
Jake
Iran can't because it is a signatory to the NPT. All those country's mentioned are either granfathered in or non-signatories (Isreal). All Iran has to do is to withdraw from the NPT. As soon as it is does even Russia and china will bail on them and they will be isolated in the world.
Ken, Oxnard, USA
The EU can negotiate with Iran so they will not get the bomb. We have great faith in the EU to get results through peaceful methods and diplomacy. War by the US is not an option. We have had enough war.
John, Burbank, USA
I believe strongly that U.S. talks with Tehran are the best approach. Of course, for anything good to come out of the talks, the U.S. would have to get out of Iraq permanently and push Isreal hard to accept a true Palistinian State, with all the rights that Isreal has. Isreal is the problem.
Billy C., Providence, RI, USA
Iran probably already has Nukes, and guess who's the current US President.
lataf, LA, CA,
If the Obama administration does nothing through either diplomatic and or military options to completely remove the nuclear threat from Iran if they do indeed get a bomb. Israel will take military action and solve the problem for Obama without a doubt.
Joe, Pittsburgh, USA
Someone long ago: "Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it." Someone below : "...why we should care whether Iran has the Bomb. They don't plan to use it against the US" Many Americans in 1939: 'We should stay out of the way of the Nazis and Japs. They don't bother us.'
Dave, Carmel, USA
Last time I checked, the distance between Tehran and London, is alot closer than New York.
DK, DC, USA
Wait a minite!.. I thought Iran only was developing nuclear power? Where have I been? Oh yeah, I was receiving abuse, because I supported our country's policies. How unfashionable! Once again I'm behind the curve. Soon, Mr. Obama is going to find out how complicated and dangerous this would is.
Tony, San Luis Obispo, USA
Those who have been so certain that negotiation will work without making clear what alternatives to its success we are willing to impose upon both ourselves and others are incredibly naive!
Al, Winslow, USA
This is a simple problem with a simple solution. If it is so important Iran should not get a weapon, promise to and then use nuclear weapons against them after they test their first (they will need to test it). And if it is not important enough to erase that country from the globe, leave them alone
Dan, Ramsey, USA
There are two main problems in avoiding a military confrontation with Iran. The first is Israel and the fact that they will not allow Iran to get a nuclear weapon. They just can't. The second problem is Iran will not stop. They just can't. They are too close. Talk all you want, but plan for war.
Pat Greene, Canyon Lake Texas, USA
Obama has preached and preached of taking troops out of Iraq. But if (probably when) negotiations fail, he might be forced to send troops to the Middle East. Gotta love him.
Andrew, North Caldwell, NJ, USA
Ryan writes, "I did not vote for the man, but I will support him and pray...."
Amen. This is our duty as Christians--as it is also to pray for all heads of state, in a spirit of political neutrality.
John Hayden, Mason, MI, USA
I'll pray for whoever is in the oval office. That being said, Obama has no history as a leader, just a politician. I have no idea how he'll react to what lies ahead. It's for certain that we do not need a Jimmy Carter in these times. Weakness is deadly. He can't vote 'present' now. We'll see.
Walker, Cleve, USA
All you folks who have irrelevantized Bush in the name of bashing Obama prematurely ought to be ashamed of yourselves. Imagine folks judging y'all for your next job while you are parking lot on the first day, not even in the door yet. Quit scapegoating. Y'all COULD e-mail him some advise! WILL you?
Sean , Oberlin, USA
One thing is clear, the right-wing lunatics will still be calling be the shots in the US . With a new president coming in, it is an ideal time to for the UK to move away from the US and closer to the EU and Russia, in relation to Middle East policy.
Laurence, Hemel Hempstead , UK
Can anyone site any examples of where diplomacy has actually solved, long term any international crisis? Or can anyone site an examples of where diplomacy has stopped an agressor nation bent on the destruction of another. Diplomacy is used to buy time...nothing more.
Bob, Houston, USA
I'm sorry Michael Nagle but did you just call the British harmless!? I'm fairly sure we are about your only staunch forgeign policy ally in the middle east.
The point of the article is Obama's presidency provides a unique opportunity since afterall Bush created the political deadlock there.
Daniel, London, England
Who are the Experts the article refers to? Who were the Experts in Iraq intelligence?
US citizens are suckers for the Myths of the Middle East! Has Iran really been the aggressor here?
Why the United States needs another front for war is the real question, given the economic situation.
Paul, NYC, USA
Obama has totally thrown away the military as an option since it doesn't comport with his Kumbaya Doctrine.
So what is he left with? Saying "Pretty please, don't build nuclear weapons?"
The South Park guys had it right with Team America. Bad guys laugh at "talk".
John, Northampton, PA,
Here go the far-left-appeasement 'Think Tanks' again. These are the same lame-brains that have talked appeasement since Caesar. Europeans of all people should realize we are seeing one more repeat of Neville Chamberlain's idiocy in pre WWII.
But then, history is not important - ask the teachers.
jrc, Bozeman,
Why is Iran having nuclear weapons a challenge only to Obama and the US? UK is a helluva lot closer to Tehran than the US! Do you nice English folks believe that harmlessness equals safety? Tell that to the Danes, Norewegians and Swedes who remember WW2!
Michael Nagle, Salt Lake City, Utah, USA
USA thought Iraq had WMD and went in..They know Iran has WMD and wont even touch them.. just shows how thick Bush and pals were!!!
Des, Tehran, IRAN
Iranian leadership understands how crossing the Nuclear Threshold changes the game entirely. The nations that have it are virtually "Untouchable" from major attack. They are determined to get it and very close so the "Talking" game is basically over. Their capability must be destroyed at this point.
Brian, Winter Park, USA
Theses experts are the same that advice the Bush government about Iraq's weapons.
Mark, London, UK
The importance of Iran is invariably overstated.
It is true that some multinational oil interests wish to recover the assets they lost in the revolution, but it is unlikely that the US has spare funds for a second occupation at present.
Only one country ever used a nuke. Watch them.
stuart munro, Seoul, Korea
When someone is placed upon a pedastool he/she can balance for a while but, ultimately topple when the weight of their own inexperience becomes too unstable. Obama is no messiah, but just watch and see how he gets crucified by his new circle of peers.
Mike, Izmir, Turkey
Kennedy was also raw and untested. The only difference might be that Obama seems to have a stronger moral compass.
Bill, Shanghai,
Sounds like the usual suspects are at it again. They have wanted to attack Iran all along and will keep pushing. Obama should talk direct to Iran. I can`t help wondering about the mentality of those who only see bombing a lot of innocent people as the way to go.
margie , victoria, australia
I can't believe the amount of pessimism. Globalisation has had a positive side effect, countries far and wide seem to be more concienscious and liberal in both thought and action. This is 2008. I believe that we now have world leaders (& followers)who are capable of sitting together to compromise
Brian, bilbao,
wow, everything that drudge report links to is trampled in the comment section by his conservative idealogoues. i wish you were this passionate about the position the neo-cons were getting us into throughout the past 8 years - i continually wonder at the banality of american conservatives.
paul, oakland, usa
Obama is the best thing to happend to repubs since carter...he is going to make a mockery of himself as prez. But I'm hoping that good ol' W takes care of this little Iran issue before he leaves office. Good luck Obama, you're going to need a lot of it.
Brian, Washington, DC,
I wonder if Obama will lead off his negotiations with, "Iran's a little country..."? Maybe a little snip about "Soviet aggression" on top? Rookie. And everyone knows it.
steve in k.c., kansas city, USA, USA!
If Europe and the UN are so enlightened, why haven't YOU solved IRAN in the last 6 years, or DARFUR, or SOMALIA, or <name-any-single-problem-here> ... Tell 'ya what, you EU/UN gasbags solve it ... call us when you're done. Trash talk is cheap & easy, show us the money since you have THE solution.
Stuart Tompkins, San Diego, USA
To all those who say Iran has as much right to build the bomb as any other country. Countries have a right to do whatever is in their best interests i.e. protect themselves. Following that line of logic, the U.S. also has the right to protect itself by making sure Iran never makes a bomb.
Bill, Dallas,
Iran may not be developing a nuclear bomb (the West knows this) BUT the US-EU wants to make sure the Islamic state do not have the capability, that Iran do not hand 'materials' to extremist groups - it's not just about Iran going nuclear. The world's governments love Obama because he is malleable.
S K Lin, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Listen Americans!!!
Have we honestly forgotten about the 9-11 terrorist attacks!!
Some haven't, but to many have. If Obama were to sit down with Irans President and the other countries who hate our guts he's CRAZY! Mike Jesus wasn't a community organizer. Jesus is God! Mike, Obama is not Jesus!!!!
Chris Houser, Southlake, Texas, United States
Personally, I think Putin and Medvedev are going to make a BIG push into South America, and cause B.O. some serious grief. Those 2 are gonna dance on the messiah like a couple of elephants cavorting in petunia patch.
ronski, St. Petersburg, FL, USA
Barack appointed Hillary who said that she wants to bomb Iran and what Hillary wants Hillary gets, so the bombing of Iran by the new Administration is very much on the cards. The Iranians will attack Israel and close the Straits of Hormuz. All Hell will break loose in Iraq. WWIII may well follow.
William Kent, Brandon, Canada
That was more of a neo-con mantra than a conservative one. I'm a conservative and lost all faith in bush around year 2-3 and the rest of the republican party shortly after.
jeremy, washington,
Obama is an untested President. The implications that he can "create a harmonized world community" are untested. It is alarming that our President-elect is touted as the "messiah" or another Jesus. He is a man who has many challenges. Let us hope and pray for him that he can meet those challenges.
Jerry, Tyler, USA
i don't see why we should care whether Iran has the Bomb. They don't plan to use it against the United States.
stubbart, carbondale il, usa
Q: why can russia , china, india, britain, france, israel , the u.s, and so on and so on all have weapons, but not iran
A: not a single one of the above countries have threatened to wipe another off the map (figuratively or literally).
Your turn...
DaveDayton, Dayton, USA
Any uranium-fueled fission reactor produces plutonium while it operates. The produced plutonium can be chemically separated to make weapons grade material. No matter what anyone says about their intentions, if Iran builds and operates a reactor they will be able to construct bombs. Period.
Howard, Austin TX, USA
@ Eric
Actually pres. Ahmadinejad can't declare war, or really do much of anything. It's the ayatollah ali khamenei that has the real power in Iran (they don't call him the "Supreme Leader" for nothing). And on that note, Khamenei has condemned Ahmadinejad's comments.
Marc, Ann Arbor, USA
It is inevitable that one day an Arab middle east country will have the bomb because the region already has a nuclear armed state in Israel. MAD or mutually assured destruction was good enough for us why should Iran not have the same protection. If it's ok for Israel to have to bomb why not Iran.
Justin Keeble, Ascot, England
I'll panic about this as soon as the WMDs that it was a "slam dunk" the last middle eastern country we started a war with over this issue turn up. And who are these think tanks? Are they like the ones that produced "A Clean Break"? Or like the ones that assured us that Iraq would be a cakewalk? Bah.
Fred Mertz, Los Angeles,
I thought Barry O stated Iran was a minor country and really of no concern. It is amazing how naive and ignorant he really was during his campaign, and now reality is slapping him in the face. Don't underestimate Bush's approached to this situation. The war in Iraq ends in Iran, not Afghanistan.
W K Antill, houston , usa
I am behind Obama because he is now the President Elect. However it's beyond frighgtening to think of this man dealing with an international crisis. Not because he's not equipped, but because of his core belief structure evident in the primary season which encompasses that America has many faults.
Curt, burlington, VT, U.S.
I already know how this will end. Obama will enter into a worthless agreement, the press will swoon, and the matter will be swept under the rug until after the next election. At which point Iran will suddenly emerge as an unstoppable nuclear force.
Elijah, Billings,
Hey let's give credence to this ongoing he said-she said game. Thank you Timesonline for contributing yet another blow to the American mental stability. I was at work the other day and some guy says to me "hey man, did you hear? Iran has a nuke." Now where did he get that Idea I wonder?... Cheers
Matthew, Lexington, United States
With the Neocons obsession with Iraq, which was a threat to no one but their own people, we "wasted" 8 years while Iran (and North Korea) proceeded to make the world a really dangerous place. This will be the Bush legacy.
Larry, Bloomington, IN, USA
I thought Bush was making up all that stuff about Iran getting a nuke, just so he could invade and steal their oil.
Or maybe that's what Bush wanted us to think!
Larry, Seattle, WA, USA
What happened to the conservative mantra of "if you dont support the president, you are unamerican"..... pitiful.
Nate, Albq,
I cannot think of a better person to pull this off. As a professional community organizer, I think Obama can get all of the leaders of the Middle East, Afg, Paksistan, and India to sit down and work things out. If I recall, he has been compared to Jesus, another great community organizer.
Mike, Denver, USA
Obama has two options: 1. Use military force/destroy the Iran nuke plants. 2. Use diplomacy and give the Iranians time to build the nukes. Obama lacks the chops to use military force, so #2 is going to be the plan. Any bets?
Sigmonde, Owannee, USA
Most people who are posting probably couldn't even find Iran on a map (pronounced "eee-rahn", not "eye-ran"), much less speak intelligently about the geo-political implications of them having a nuke
Iran wants nukes for the same reason as everyone else...to keep other countries from attacking them
Tim, Chicago, USA
I am quite sure that the "messiah" thinks he can talk them into submission. Obama is in for a rude awakening.
Joe Momma, Bethel, USA
Iran is not developing a nuclear bomb. PERIOD. ALL 16 US intelligence agencies agree on this, and the IAEA has not found a shred of evidence of highly enriched uranium. Iran is allowed to enrich uranium to less than 5% U-235 by the NNPT they signed with the United States. STOP THE WAR MONGERING.
Eric, San Diego, USA
Council on Foreign Relations equals New World Order. Scary.
Joe, Panama City, Florida, USA
Noboma votes present. Opps, that won't work anymore.
Bob, Dallas, USA
Perhaps he should also look at dealing with Saudi Arabia's nuclear program. After all, they are a more repressive dictatorship than Iran and 15 of the 9/11 bombers were from Saudi.
It should be easy. The US can just cancel the recent agreement to give them nuclear technology
Russ, London, UK
Obama will do as Clinton did. He'll slide the big problems to whoever follows him up leaving a huge mess behind him. He'll end up as a tin horn hero. Since no one in the Liberal media seems to care he'll never be accountable..... Remember North Korea and who soft sold us down the drain on that one.
Walter, Seattle, USA
Haven't we confirmed that Iran is using proxies in Iraq? If so, that means they have ties to "extremists" and if that's the case, there should be NO talk until Iran shows that it is sincere about taking part in the international community and respecting the wishes of the world.
Adrian Hauberg, Atlanta, US
Bush held Israel back but maybe it was a good thing given his blunders in Afghanistan and Iraq . Now we can only hope for better relations with Iran (better yet a regeime change) .
Bill, Charlotte,NC, USA
Well, it's a good thing about Iran and the bomb. Now Obama has something to chat about with Ahmadinejad when they sit for tea unconditionally.
Steve, NYC, USA
A nuclear bomb? That can't be right. All the progressives in the US have been telling me that Iran is just building a reactor for peaceful purposes. In fact, I hear the Bush Administration was mocked for suggesting Iran had less-than-peaceful intentions. Oh well Who to believe?
Fuji, Greensboro,
Congratulations Joe Biden! The crisis you predicted is here, now let's see how Mr. community organizer deals with it.
ed, Quartz Hill, Ca., USA
I would agree Pakistan is a much bigger problem than Iran. Iran historically has not been a nation to invade others. The biggest threat at the moment is the possibility of a war between Pakistan and India.
Robert, Atlanta, USA
The longstanding, frighteningly fragile standoff between Pakistan and India is a much greater threat than the likelihood of Iran having a bomb in 2009. Israel will assure that does not happen.
How, however, does Obama plan to stop Pakistanin nuclear weapons from falling into the hands of terrorists?
John Carpenter, new York, United States
why can russia , china, india, britain, france, israel , the u.s, and so on and so on all have weapons, but not iran. would we be in the mess were in if iraq had weapons, i think not. iran has every right to protect themselves as does every other country.
jake, chicago, usa
All he has to do is sit down with them and chat. I'm sure they are chomping at the bits to be liked. No, that is us.
lwayne, Greenville, USA
I thought the US Intelligence experts said less that a year ago the Iran was not developing a nuclear weapon. Where are those experts now??
Bill Gordon, Fort Worth, USA
I bet the boy-man, Obama, is really nervous! How does someone who has never made a politically important decision in his short political life, deal with all this? I guess he could beg Iran to not bomb us? let the begging/negotiating begin...
bran, Manhattan,
I pray that Obama does the right thing. I did not vote for the man, but I will support him and pray that he makes the correct decision for the USA.
Ryan, Kansas City, USA
"Restoring the Balance" is the name of the CFR article? With so many people in the CFR of such high intelligence, one is left to ponder when and where this former balance is to be found.
There can be no balance with extremists like Iran. The CFR knows that, "Why do they advocate suicide?"
Sadrassa, New York, USA
Throughout all of our history, the United States has always seemed to produce superb leaders who were able to lead our nation at the very times of our worst crisis. Let us hope, rather, let us pray that President-elect Obama is another such leader!
Thomas, Grand Rapids, USA
Clearly Iran is a serious problem. . . However, it seems to me Pakistan is of considerable challenge as well. . . .They already have the Bomb and a weak government is unable to quell the terroists activity and training within their country. . .
A lot of serious challenges we hope will wait.
Don rose, Port Aransas, USA
President Obama if he guts the military like every other Democrat President, and by his own stated speeches will not have anything he can bargain with. The Iranians will walk over him as they did Carter.
Lance, Staples, USA
This so-called "think-tank", which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Democrat party, are the same experts that said that Iran could not have a "Nuke" for at least ten years. That was good enough to ameliorate the total lack of experience in the Obama CV. Now we have to live with the consequences
Diogenes, Minneapolis, USA