Anne Ashworth, Property Editor
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The tag “iconic” coupled with a big-name architect used to guarantee a housing scheme's success. They were not enough, however, to save the Lumiere, a Philippe Starck-designed glass tower in Leeds where work stopped this week. Kevin Linfoot, the developer, said that it would be “commercial suicide” to continue.
The dimming of the safety lights at the Lumiere, one of scores of developments falling quiet, increases concern about the long-term outlook for the property market. Homeowners may be preoccupied with statistics on falling prices but the mothballing of housing schemes could exacerbate the shortage of homes, making another price spiral possible several years hence.
The downturn is producing bargains, for those minded to take a gamble. These can only be seized by buyers with piles of spare cash, however, as cheaper mortgages are unlikely to be available soon, unless the Treasury-sponsored report by Sir James Crosby produces a mechanism to return the loan business to normal. Whatever he suggests, it is unlikely that the easy money will flow freely again. Liam Bailey, of Knight Frank, believes that banks will return to the cautious policies of a decade ago.
An uneasy silence may have fallen over construction sites, but this has not stilled the debate over who will acquire the thousands of completed but unsold homes. Some rich investors are buying, exploiting the discounts of 30 per cent or more on offer; others are waiting until developers slash their margins to nothing.
Also on the lookout for a good deal will be housing associations. Some players in this not-for-profit industry that controls £74 billion worth of housing are as powerful as FTSE 100 companies. They are extra-creditworthy and so able to get finance. First-time buyers who could only dream of a city centre loft may now be able to move into such a pad thanks to a shared-equity scheme.
One commentator, asked yesterday to predict what would happen to the mothballed sites, said that each would be “its own story”, with the ending dependent on the fortunes of the local market. There are, however, national implications: the Government's ambitious housing targets cannot now be met, whatever ministers may say in public. What they are saying in private, perhaps, is that cutting the supply of homes now will help to shore up the housing market. This will be scant comfort for the laid-off brickies and plumbers contemplating the destruction of their own plans.
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If the construction industry is about to be hit hard maybe it would be a good idea to start building more prisons.
Steve Byrne, christchurch, UK
Who writes all these articles for goodness sake cant anyone see the big picture? Its been brewing for over 10 years. The Government, Banks etc have caused this mess with cheap money and ridiculous loans. Too many have more than one home. So prices have dropped 2% when will they drop the next 50%
Pete, Leeds, UK
This silly argument about housing shortage and pent up demand.
I drive a Volvo and not a Ferrari because I can only afford the former. Everybody living in a studio would like to move in a 10-bedroom mansion. The economic law is not supply and demand but affordable supply and resourceful demand.
Frederic Dodin, Cambridge, UK
There is not a housing shortage, but there is a mass shortage of homes people want to buy. People want 3-5 bed houses with a decent garden. The developers build 1-2 bedroom flats with no outdoor space. Here lies the problem
john, BATH,
The people who could afford to undertake such investments would be dead by the time they see a return.
Manu, Croydon , UK
Shortage of housing? So why are there so many empty flats people can't sell, the governments own figures show 1 in 20 houses are empty.
The market was driven by cheap money and speculation, not a shortage of housing.
Lenny, Coventry,
That's pretty much unanimous then; Anne Ashworth feel free to take a holiday and come back and entertain us in about 3 years time when the property market has come back down to Earth. Do send us a postcard from time to time though, and easy on the cocktails...
Jonathan, London,
The shortage of stock in the property market has been a myth. The true situation up until recently has been a surplus of easy money lent by the banks to anyone who cared to take it.
Allan, Inverness,
There is no shortage, only speculation
And the fundamentals are not in place at all. All the lagging indicators are showing themselves now...just watch uemployment sky-rocket.
george, aylesbury,
Stop trying to ramp the market. Firstly what bargains? Just wait another 6 months to a year to see the real bargains appearing.
Stop the shortage arguement, as the recession bites more and more property will become available .
david barker, eastbourne,
The shortage is a myth. There is no more a shortage now than during the 70s, 80s or 90s.
When prices were rocketing, people interpreted this as a shortage of property, nor a surplus of money (loose lending).
But now prices are falling they call it a shortage of lending, not a housing surplusl
Mart, London, UK
800,000 empty properties in Britain.
One hell of a shortage.
Mary Jones, Southampton,
Leeds City Council took the money from developers and let these flat schemes run wild. 20,000 more flats (12 yrs supply) have permission in Leeds, most at the expense of employment use land.
It is utter madness and represents a massive failure of local and national government to plan and control.
John Jenkins, York,
Like a well-worn record, property journalists keep parroting this stuff about "property shortage", 175,000 new homes were built in 2007, enough for 450,000 people. Granted, many were BTLs or overpriced and now stand empty but thats down to builders' greed, nothing to do with structural shortage.
geoff , spain,
As chairman of a Housing Association, it is unlikely that we will purchase 'bargains' on building sites just yet. To let at affordable rents, house prices will have to fall by another 25% or the government will have to give us higher grants:- to rely on housing benefits will just create slums.
john towers, Bolton, United Kingdom
"Bargains"? not unless the price has dropped by at least 50% from the high point. There has been 10% or more compound inflation - per annum - in house prices for at least the last 15 years. It is going to take a really, really massive reduction to fix the problem.
Clive, Monterrey , Mexico
Why wait for developers to cut margins only to zero?
Wait a bit longer and the administrators will have a different view on what a minimum price is.
We are a looooong way off bargains yet.
Yield after voids and costs >> cost of finance + risk margin might be start eh?
Do the sums, and wait.
Michael, Bay of Plenty, New Zealand