Mark Atherton
Get 20% off your bill at Pizza Express
The Olympic Games opened in Beijing yesterday, putting China at the centre of the world stage. And as the sporting pundits weigh up the country's medal prospects, financial experts will measure its investment prospects against its rivals.
Is this exciting emerging market destined for the winner's podium or fated to be an also-ran? Until quite recently the answer seemed clear: it was an out-and-out winner. Many years of double-digit economic growth had catapulted China funds to the top of the performance tables. But in the past ten months the Chinese stock market has fallen by about 50 per cent from last year's peak.
Those who are bearish about China argue that such a correction was inevitable as the stock market had run away with itself. Although China is not greatly affected by the credit crunch, the general uncertainty has led global investors to rein in their risk exposure - and so pull out of emerging markets such as China, where they can take good profits.
Rising inflation is another concern. Last year it was as low as 5 per cent but this year it has hit 8 per cent, triggering worries that Chinese exports will no longer be so competitive. This, in turn, has led the Chinese Government to tighten control of the money supply, putting a brake on rapidly growing consumer spending.
There are also worries about the standard of corporate governance in China, the economic impact of the recent earthquakes, and the increasing wealth gap between the rich coastal areas, where most of China's economic growth is concentrated, and the poorer inland provinces. A final, much-voiced concern, is whether the Chinese business model, dependent as it is on high levels of cheap exports, is sustainable in the long run.
But Brian Dennehy, of Dennehy Weller & Co, an independent financial adviser (IFA), argues that the fundamentals driving Chinese stock market growth are all still in place. He says: “The Chinese population of 1.3 billion is still a largely untapped market. About 300 million people live on less than $1 a day and there are only two cars for every 100 people. This provides scope for infrastructure improvements and new industries.” With many hundreds of millions expected to move from rural to urban areas, the Chinese will need to build the equivalent of two New York cities every year for the next 15 years.Meanwhile, China is rapidly changing in other areas. Pinakin Patel, of JPMorgan, says: “The idea that China's exports are all low-added-value items is out of date. There has been a substantial increase in exports of machinery and equipment, which account for 48 per cent of the total.
“While the State has a large stake in many companies, there is much more fragmentation of ownership than you would imagine. For example, the largest cement company controls just 3 per cent of production. There is still scope for consolidation in a number of industries.”
Future economic growth is forecast to turn out at about 8 per cent and, after their recent fall, the valuation of Chinese shares, at a price-earnings ratio of about 15, looks quite cheap, while earnings per share are growing at a healthy 18 per cent this year. Mr Patel thinks banks and consumer stocks, such as food and clothing manufacturers, look attractive.
For those looking to invest in China, Mr Dennehy likes the look of Gartmore China Opportunities fund and Invesco Perpetual Hong Kong & China fund. Mark Dampier, of Hargreaves Lansdown, another IFA, says that investors “would be mad” not to have some exposure to China in their portfolios. But he admits that it is still a volatile market so they should be prepared for “a pretty bumpy ride”.
He suggests gaining exposure to China through a global emerging markets fund, such as the Allianz BRIC Stars fund or First State Asia Pacific Leaders fund. Those prepared for the extra risk and volatility of a single country fund could go for Jupiter China fund.
Given the volatility of the Chinese market, he adds that it would be a good idea to make a regular monthly investment in whatever fund you select. “This would help to smooth out the ups and downs of the market and ensure that you buy more units or shares when prices are lower, and fewer when they are higher,” he says.
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
The inside track on current trends in the charity, not for profit and social enterprise sectors
Explore your passion for food with the delights of Thai, Indian & Chinese cooking
Read our exclusive 100 Years of Fleming and Bond interactive timeline, packed with original Times articles and reviews
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
05/2005
£13,500
08/2008
£109,950
2006
£10,750
Great car insurance deals online
£100k
The National Skills Academy for Social Care
London
£49,229 - £62,035 pro rata
Charity Commission
London/Liverpool/Taunton
£75k - £85k
Confidential
London
Six Figure
Rolls Royce
Midlands/Europe
From £89,950
Great Investment, River Views
$3.5 million
Also avaliable for rent
Times Online Property Search will help you find it
Amazing Far East Offers - Visit Hong Kong
from £499pp
Cruise the Islands of Hawaii - Pride of America
List your property with two leading travel websites
Great travel insurance deals online
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths
News International associated websites: Globrix | Property Finder | Milkround
Copyright 2008 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.